MLB Best Bets Today August 10:
A sweet 16 of baseball games is on the docket for Saturday, as rain washed out the Rangers and Yankees last night, giving us a scheduled doubleheader today. Mother Nature has not been a fan of the Bronx Bombers this week to say the least.
The rest of the card features some pretty compelling action and a couple more big favorites than yesterday, but it should still be a good day for baseball fans.
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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox (-118, 10.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
Spencer Arrighetti and Josh Winckowski are the listed starters for the Astros and Red Sox matchup in the FS1 game of the day. Arrighetti is a “Forrest Gump” starter for me, in that he’s a box of chocolates and you never know what you’re gonna get. But, there are positive regression signs in the profile, as he comes in with a 5.33 ERA, but a 4.06 xERA and a 4.21 FIP over his 98 innings of work.
He’s racked up 20 strikeouts over his last two starts and has allowed eight runs on 16 hits in 18 innings since the All-Star Break. He’s also only walked five batters in those second half starts, which I like to see. The wide range of outcomes does make him a little tough to bet on, but I’ll trust that the positive regression keeps coming to fruition and I love the swing-and-miss upside.
Also, this is a bullpen game for the Red Sox with Nick Pivetta getting skipped and Cooper Criswell on the shelf with COVID. Winckowski has a 3.44 ERA with a 4.44 FIP and a 4.88 xERA in his 49.2 innings. Typically guys like him are going to get exposed when they’re in a starting role because they become relievers due to a lack of depth in the arsenal or an inability to generate enough whiffs to turn the lineup over.
But, the biggest reason why I’m fading Boston here today is I think that Alex Cora will feel like he needs to use Brad Keller. The recently-promoted Keller has a 5.13 ERA with a 4.62 xERA and a 5.15 FIP in 33.1 innings at the MLB level this season and was objectively awful in 2021 and 2022 with the Royals.
In the minors this season, he has a 4.26 ERA with a 30/17 K/BB ratio in 38 innings. I just don’t find him to be an effective pitcher and he’s likely to be used in the middle innings for the Sox.
Pick: Astros -102
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers (-115, 8)
9:10 p.m. ET
Two terrific young arms will take the mound in the late game on the NL schedule between the Pirates and Dodgers. Overwhelming NL Rookie of the Year favorite and NL Cy Young second favorite Paul Skenes goes up against River Ryan, who some considered the best pitching prospect in the minors at the time of his call-up.
Let’s talk about Skenes first, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 14 starts, but there is the possibility that he may be leaking a little bit of oil. His 10 strikeouts over the last two starts are the fewest he’s had in any two-start couplet this season. His six walks are also the most he’s had in any two-start stretch.
While averaging 98 mph is still mind-blowing, his last start was his lowest of the season in the fastball velo department and he’s now had four straight starts under 99 mph. He had two prior to that. These are probably mild regressions at best and he’ll likely be amped up for a start against the Dodgers, but he has thrown 86 MLB innings and 27.1 minor league innings this season. He threw 122.2 innings in 2023 for LSU and 6.2 for the Pirates, so this isn’t a career high, but these are much higher-stress pitches against MLB hitters.
Skenes has seen some spin rate drops from where he was earlier in the season on his curveball and four-seam fastball.
Again, these are mild things. But, when you’re facing a lineup like LA’s, anything can be a thing and especially with the Pittsburgh lineup going up against Ryan. Ryan has allowed four runs on 11 hits in 15.2 innings with a 14/9 K/BB ratio. He had a 2.22 ERA with a 32/8 K/BB ratio in 24.1 innings at the minor league level.
Ryan has only allowed 10 hard-hit balls over three starts and only three Barrels. If nothing else, I think he can go toe-to-toe with Skenes, while also having the better lineup and the better bullpen. The Dodgers also have a rested bullpen after Thursday’s off day, while the Pirates have three guys that would be pitching for a third time in four days.
Pick: Dodgers -115
